I actually buy into your cultural arguments here, albeit the people making youth culture now in Japan were themselves part of a youthful bulge for the most part.
However, I think you dramatically understate the economic challenges; pensions and health care will be extremely difficult to provide in a society where a huge proportion of the population is retired, and that's not even accounting for the enormous debt burden almost every country in this situation is leaving their children.
I hear you. I am not an economist, so I wanted to focus on the cultural approach to the question. But the fact that gender balance, economics, etc. are so prominent in the comments really says something about the concerns around this topic.
Regarding your comment about the cohort of older creators having been part of the boom, there's no question. But I find it very interesting that most if not all of the anime/manga megaproperties today (Naruto, One Piece, DBZ etc.) are products of the 1990s, well into the birth rate dropoff. The biggest hit of the 2020s, Demon Slayer, was created by a Millennial who never experienced the boom years at all. (Though the 2019 theatrical film was directed by a 46 year old.) So there's a dynamism there born of something other than mining nostalgia.
I have a thought, Matt. I think part of the reason so many aren’t having children (both US and Japan) is that the future was taken away. It started in July 1969 when America landed men on the Moon and brought them home safely. We all used to be Space Crazy up to that point. Going to the Moon was just the first step of the conquest of space.
Then we landed. And came back. And someone declared ‘bored now’ and all the… promotion… of a shining future stopped. 2001 a space odyssey showed us what might be but cinema quickly shifted to tales of miserable futures, of pollution and overpopulation and nuclear war, the future was so bleak, shades not required. 1977 changed a bit, Star Wars was positive and filled with energy and excitement, but not hope. Not a future to aspire to. It’s space fantasy, just a cowboy film with laser swords. Also in the later ‘70s GK O’Neill proposed how space colonies and lunar and asteroid mining could save the Earth, but few actually listened. Full disclosure, I bought into that idea 100% and still think it’s good. Hold my cola, Gundam. 😁
Then the actual year 2001 landed and whooo boy it wasn’t ANYTHING like the movie so that’s a crush.
And ever since, for two full generations, there has been no hope to light the spark. Tomorrow is going to be today with thinner iPhones.
I’m not too surprised that folk think ‘why bother’, in addition to people being selfish babies who don’t want to put the work in. Give up my fun to raise that terrible loud demanding creature who does nothing but eat and poop? No way dude! 😑
Anyway, I have no solution. Elon Musk is really trying hard and has accomplished much but everything is just stacked against him.
That’s enough for now, there i go again with the ‘writ moar’ 😁
I appreciate that you chose to take a nuanced, thoughtful approach to discussing the aging society predicament without resorting to cheap doomerist or aggressively pro-natalist rhetoric.
Another factor worth mentioning regarding the declining birth rates in East Asian countries is that, unlike the West which is in a similar situation, the East doesn't actively open itself up to immigration populations that would offset the population decline besides tourists and gaijin who come to the country out of personal interest than circumstance.
I see what you’re saying, and it *is* paradoxical that an aged society can create things that young people love so much. I think this is due to a practiced hand; my guess is that those oldsters have been at this for decades, and we’re seeing the fruits of their expertise.
However, I can’t agree with this idea of treating low birth rates as no big deal. In many ways, it’s similar to climate change — it’s a collective action problem, it impacts the future of humanity, specific political tribes push it as a core issue, and a definitive solution requires massive lifestyle changes that few are willing to make.
Just like runaway climate change is unsustainable, so are runaway low birth rates; keep in mind that excess carbon dioxide also comes from freedom of choice. We don’t say “we should just live with it” when it comes to the climate, so I don’t think we should be so dismissive about falling birth rates either.
It's interesting you link it to climate change, because I think fear of the future plays a role in this phenomenon. But in a free society, what is one going to do? Japan has enacted all sorts of incentives to convince citizens otherwise, yet people continue choosing to have fewer kids.
If societies are really going to address this issue, they will need to address the elephant in the room, which is the treatment of women. Witness how Japan regularly comes in dead last among advanced nations in gender equality rankings. Sexism seems to play a major role in the low birth rates in South Korea as well. If the politicians really wanted to reverse the trend they'd pour their efforts into fixing that problem first and foremost. That they do not really makes one wonder what their true priorities are.
Again, very similar to climate change. Lots of free choices leads to lots of carbon (and even more plastic!) Policymakers in OECD countries don’t just throw up their hands about this, however.
“…the treatment of women in society.”
The Nordic countries, often cited as being great for women, *have* had more success in this regard. As of now, Denmark and Iceland are doing pretty well on birth rate for OECD countries, while Norway and Sweden’s declines are fairly recent. Thus you’ll see no argument from me there; a less rigid approach to married life is not a negative, as long as there is love and affection.
I'm definitely not saying to throw our hands up! Ageing societies pose very real concerns. But so much of the dialogue surrounding this topic takes on ominously misogynistic overtones, as though it is somehow all women's fault, or ageist ones, as in "damn kids these days." Neither is true or productive. If societies (read: governments) want more babies, they're going to have to work not with nostalgia but the realities of young people. In Japan, that means addressing workplace sexism head on, and might also mean broader social efforts such as de-stigmatizing unmarried couples having kids and/or single motherhood, etc. There was a good piece about this by Professor Yoriko Meguro, who said "Marriage and childbearing are individual choices. The government’s job is to grasp the needs of individuals and help them secure what they’re lacking.” https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00906/
One thing’s for sure; it’s not strictly a money issue. Questions of marriage and childbearing defy easy solutions because each marriage, each childbirth, is an individual choice made for any number of reasons — and that’s not some empty platitude. It’s literally true. There is no policy that can force two people together in wedlock and not have it end in tears.
Very true. Most of the couples I know who chose not to have kids didn't make that decision out of a sense of economic precarity or sexism. They simply decided they didn't want kids for whatever reason. Accepting that is part of the reality of the situation I'm talking about here.
On the other hand, I’m sure there are plenty who do want children but are not able to because they aren’t sociable enough (hikikomori are an extreme example of this.) In many ways, this is the toughest collective action problem, because collective solutions aren’t possible — you have to go person by person.
I actually buy into your cultural arguments here, albeit the people making youth culture now in Japan were themselves part of a youthful bulge for the most part.
However, I think you dramatically understate the economic challenges; pensions and health care will be extremely difficult to provide in a society where a huge proportion of the population is retired, and that's not even accounting for the enormous debt burden almost every country in this situation is leaving their children.
I hear you. I am not an economist, so I wanted to focus on the cultural approach to the question. But the fact that gender balance, economics, etc. are so prominent in the comments really says something about the concerns around this topic.
Regarding your comment about the cohort of older creators having been part of the boom, there's no question. But I find it very interesting that most if not all of the anime/manga megaproperties today (Naruto, One Piece, DBZ etc.) are products of the 1990s, well into the birth rate dropoff. The biggest hit of the 2020s, Demon Slayer, was created by a Millennial who never experienced the boom years at all. (Though the 2019 theatrical film was directed by a 46 year old.) So there's a dynamism there born of something other than mining nostalgia.
I have a thought, Matt. I think part of the reason so many aren’t having children (both US and Japan) is that the future was taken away. It started in July 1969 when America landed men on the Moon and brought them home safely. We all used to be Space Crazy up to that point. Going to the Moon was just the first step of the conquest of space.
Then we landed. And came back. And someone declared ‘bored now’ and all the… promotion… of a shining future stopped. 2001 a space odyssey showed us what might be but cinema quickly shifted to tales of miserable futures, of pollution and overpopulation and nuclear war, the future was so bleak, shades not required. 1977 changed a bit, Star Wars was positive and filled with energy and excitement, but not hope. Not a future to aspire to. It’s space fantasy, just a cowboy film with laser swords. Also in the later ‘70s GK O’Neill proposed how space colonies and lunar and asteroid mining could save the Earth, but few actually listened. Full disclosure, I bought into that idea 100% and still think it’s good. Hold my cola, Gundam. 😁
Then the actual year 2001 landed and whooo boy it wasn’t ANYTHING like the movie so that’s a crush.
And ever since, for two full generations, there has been no hope to light the spark. Tomorrow is going to be today with thinner iPhones.
I’m not too surprised that folk think ‘why bother’, in addition to people being selfish babies who don’t want to put the work in. Give up my fun to raise that terrible loud demanding creature who does nothing but eat and poop? No way dude! 😑
Anyway, I have no solution. Elon Musk is really trying hard and has accomplished much but everything is just stacked against him.
That’s enough for now, there i go again with the ‘writ moar’ 😁
I appreciate that you chose to take a nuanced, thoughtful approach to discussing the aging society predicament without resorting to cheap doomerist or aggressively pro-natalist rhetoric.
Another factor worth mentioning regarding the declining birth rates in East Asian countries is that, unlike the West which is in a similar situation, the East doesn't actively open itself up to immigration populations that would offset the population decline besides tourists and gaijin who come to the country out of personal interest than circumstance.
Japan has actually been making strides in that regard -- Noah Smith has written about this in some detail: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-is-not-a-xenophobic-country
I see what you’re saying, and it *is* paradoxical that an aged society can create things that young people love so much. I think this is due to a practiced hand; my guess is that those oldsters have been at this for decades, and we’re seeing the fruits of their expertise.
However, I can’t agree with this idea of treating low birth rates as no big deal. In many ways, it’s similar to climate change — it’s a collective action problem, it impacts the future of humanity, specific political tribes push it as a core issue, and a definitive solution requires massive lifestyle changes that few are willing to make.
Just like runaway climate change is unsustainable, so are runaway low birth rates; keep in mind that excess carbon dioxide also comes from freedom of choice. We don’t say “we should just live with it” when it comes to the climate, so I don’t think we should be so dismissive about falling birth rates either.
It's interesting you link it to climate change, because I think fear of the future plays a role in this phenomenon. But in a free society, what is one going to do? Japan has enacted all sorts of incentives to convince citizens otherwise, yet people continue choosing to have fewer kids.
If societies are really going to address this issue, they will need to address the elephant in the room, which is the treatment of women. Witness how Japan regularly comes in dead last among advanced nations in gender equality rankings. Sexism seems to play a major role in the low birth rates in South Korea as well. If the politicians really wanted to reverse the trend they'd pour their efforts into fixing that problem first and foremost. That they do not really makes one wonder what their true priorities are.
Mieko Kawakami wrote quite eloquently of this in a recent essay for the Economist: https://archive.li/8LoJL#selection-1143.26-1143.121
“In a free society, what is one going to do?”
Again, very similar to climate change. Lots of free choices leads to lots of carbon (and even more plastic!) Policymakers in OECD countries don’t just throw up their hands about this, however.
“…the treatment of women in society.”
The Nordic countries, often cited as being great for women, *have* had more success in this regard. As of now, Denmark and Iceland are doing pretty well on birth rate for OECD countries, while Norway and Sweden’s declines are fairly recent. Thus you’ll see no argument from me there; a less rigid approach to married life is not a negative, as long as there is love and affection.
I'm definitely not saying to throw our hands up! Ageing societies pose very real concerns. But so much of the dialogue surrounding this topic takes on ominously misogynistic overtones, as though it is somehow all women's fault, or ageist ones, as in "damn kids these days." Neither is true or productive. If societies (read: governments) want more babies, they're going to have to work not with nostalgia but the realities of young people. In Japan, that means addressing workplace sexism head on, and might also mean broader social efforts such as de-stigmatizing unmarried couples having kids and/or single motherhood, etc. There was a good piece about this by Professor Yoriko Meguro, who said "Marriage and childbearing are individual choices. The government’s job is to grasp the needs of individuals and help them secure what they’re lacking.” https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00906/
One thing’s for sure; it’s not strictly a money issue. Questions of marriage and childbearing defy easy solutions because each marriage, each childbirth, is an individual choice made for any number of reasons — and that’s not some empty platitude. It’s literally true. There is no policy that can force two people together in wedlock and not have it end in tears.
Very true. Most of the couples I know who chose not to have kids didn't make that decision out of a sense of economic precarity or sexism. They simply decided they didn't want kids for whatever reason. Accepting that is part of the reality of the situation I'm talking about here.
On the other hand, I’m sure there are plenty who do want children but are not able to because they aren’t sociable enough (hikikomori are an extreme example of this.) In many ways, this is the toughest collective action problem, because collective solutions aren’t possible — you have to go person by person.
Great quote from Professor Meguro!